The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reclassified the system that was in the Caribbean back to invest 94L. However since that reclassification 94L has become even more sheared and the NHC has lowered the chances of this system of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone over the next couple of days to 10%.
This is a very large disorganized system that has most of its energy can be found on the east side of the elongated low. The main reason this system remains sheared is because of an upper level low pressure system making its way across north Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models take this system towards the north and northeast over the next several days and the same models keep shear in their forecast, keeping 94L below tropical depression status.
As always this a great time to review your hurricane preparedness plans.
MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN
Hurricane Adrian remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Wind Scale with wind of 140 mph. Hurricane Adrian is moving towards the west-northwest at a slow 9 mph. The NHC expects Adrian to start weakening sometime today as this system moves over cooler waters and eventually into a higher shear environment. Computer models are in good agreement on a west-northwest track and a steady weakening trend.
Hurricane Adrian is not a threat to land and is forecast to remain only a threat to shipping. The effects of Adrian can be felt along the southwest coast of Mexico with large swells and rip currents.
…ADRIAN APPEARS TO BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 310 MI…505 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…946 MB…27.94 INCHES
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 with about 80% of tropical storms and hurricanes developing during August, September, and October. In a typical year, 11 named storms develop and 6 of these become hurricanes.
Tropical Cyclone Categories:
-Tropical Depression 20 knots/23 mph
-Tropical Storm 34 knots/39 mph
-Category 1 Hurricane 64 knots/74 mph
-Category 2 Hurricane 84 knots/96 mph
-Category 3 Hurricane 97 knots/111 mph
-Category 4 Hurricane 114 knots/131 mph
-Category 5 Hurricane 136 knots/156 mph