Day 1-5 Weather Discussion:
The main story today is the possibility for a major severe weather outbreak in parts of the Plains. The SPC has a moderate risk of severe storms from northeast Kansas through eastern Nebraska, and some high resolution models I have seen, show severe storms with the potential for very strong winds and strong tornadoes across eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, and western Iowa this afternoon and evening. Folks in those areas should be prepared for some nasty storms today. In general though there is a slight risk from north Texas to southern Minnesota through the Ohio Valley down through the Carolinas.
The main culprit to this is an unusually strong storm system which is spawning a 989mb low across the southern plains. The low is greatly distorting the low level wind field, and this combined with strong winds aloft and abundant summer heat is producing this outbreak of severe weather. The threat will be primarily over the Midwest and Ohio Valley tomorrow and the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic by Wednesday.
Warmth will build through the week in the mid-Atlantic and southeast but as of now it doesn’t look to extreme. After a very hot week and weekend in Texas, they should see a bit of a break this week, although Dallas looks to remain in the 95-100 range all week.
Day 6-10 Weather Discussion:
Most of the northern tier of the US will see temperatures near or slightly below normal during this period with the bulk of the heat across the interior southwest and southern plains with the main corridor of pain being from Las Vegas to Tucson to Dallas. The 00z ECMWF showed a massive heat ridge building along the west coast which would bring big heat to the Pacific Northwest late in the period, but for now it looks to be an outlier.
Some of the global models have been hinting at tropical develop in the western Caribbean in this period as well but so far they have been inconsistent.
Day 11-15 Weather Discussion:
There is a bit of disagreement this morning between the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles during this period, but they agree that the focus of any heat will likely not be in the eastern US. The GFS Ensembles want to focus the heat in the 4 corners region through the northern plains with the east slightly above normal. The GGEM Ensembles are somewhat similar but a bit further east with the major heat across the Plains and Midwest with the east above normal, while the ECMWF Ensembles are a bit further west with the heat focused on the inter-mountain west and the near east near normal.
All and all I think the best bet is the GFS Ensemble solution with most of the country outside the Pacific Northwest and immediate west coast above normal, with the heart of the heat from the 4 Corners through the northern Plains.