As promised, summer-like heat and humidity has flooded the region this week and looks to only increase as we move into Memorial Day weekend and beyond. One thing that did not go as planned though was the prediction for some severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the end, a few key ingrediants were lacking (though it certainly wasn’t heat and humidity) and thunderstorms were never quite able to fire up. I’m sure nobody is complaining about that especially considering the death and devastation severe weather continues to bring other areas of the country (Click to see how you can help Joplin, Missouri after an EF5 tornado leveled much of the city on Sunday and killed at least 125 people).
Amazingly yet another destructive and deadly tornado outbreak is expected across portions of the Midwest and deep South today, with cities such as Memphis, St Louis, and Indianapolis under the gun. Meanwhile we will be basking in the sunshine in New Jersey with no threat of thunderstorms. Temperatures will reach the low 80s, and the humidity will be lower than yesterday making for a perfect day.
Thursday will be great again for the most part, with highs in the low to mid 80s and a notable increase in the humidity. You will, however, need to watch out in the afternoon for a few widely scattered thunderstorms particularly in western areas of NJ.
Friday is mostly sunny and downright hot and muggy with highs 85-90. The afternoon will again need to be watched for thunderstorms that could become severe. At the moment the threat is greatest across western NJ where the computer models show closer to the forcing needed to generate these storms. The Storm Prediction Center clips northwestern NJ in a slight risk box for severe thunderstorms on their day 3 outlook, but 3 days is still a ways away when it comes to thunderstorm forecasting and hence subject to large changes. Stay tuned.
Memorial Day Weekend:
The official beginning of summer is going to feel like it. Partly sunny skies should prevail for the most part on Saturday and Sunday with a chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This appears to be only be your typical summer time threat in this area of the country and not enough to wash out your outdoor plans. Hot and humid highs in the low to mid 80s on these days. An even stronger heat ridge will likely build in by Memorial Day Monday and I expect highs in the upper 80s to even 90s in spots possibly. It looks like we can ditch the threat of afternoon thunderstorms all together as well. One thing to also keep in mind on each of these days is that the beach areas will likely be much cooler, in the 70s, with afternoon sea breezes developing off the still cool Atlantic Ocean. I will update this forecast later this week as some details are still likely to be tweaked.